In option pricing, we encounter realized vs implied vol (not to be elaborated here). In market risk (VaR etc), we encounter

past-realized-vol vs forecast-realized-vol. Therefore, we have 3 flavors of vol

PP) past realized vol, for a historical period, such as Year 2012

FF) forecast realized vol, for a start/end date range that's after the reference date or valuation date. This valuation date is

typically today.

II) implied vol, for a start/end date range that's after the reference date or valuation date. This valuation date is typically

today.

PP has a straightforward definition, which is basis of FF/II.

Why FF? To assess VaR of a stock (I didn't say "stock option") over the next 365 days, we need to estimate variation in the stock

price over that period.

FF calculation (whenever you see a FF number) is based on historical data (incidentally the same data underlying PP), whereas II

calculation (whenever you see a II number like 11%) is based on quotes on options whose remaining TTL is being estimated to show an

(annualized) vol of 11%.

See http://www.core.ucl.ac.be/econometrics/Giot/Papers/IMPLIED3_g.pdf compares FF and II.

## Wednesday, January 23, 2013

### implied vol vs forecast-realized-vol

at Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Labels: finVol

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